Did We Get Our Cannabis Miracle? I Don’t Think So…
We’re just under two weeks out from Election Day 2022. People across Chicagoland and the state of Illinois are already casting ballots by mail and early in-person voting. The marquee race on the ballot is the contest for the next four years in the governor's mansion. And with President Joe Biden recently announcing mass federal pardons for marijuana possession convictions (he notably did not pardon sales convictions), now is a great time to assess the impact of one of Governor J.B. Pritzker’s biggest legislative victories; the passage of the Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act of 2019 which legalized the recreational sale and use marijuana in the state.
Political capital is finite. It is a combination of time and goodwill, and just like financial capital, politicians only have so much. That is why a governor will attempt to get as much of his or her policy agenda accomplished early in the term of office. One never knows what crisis or distraction lay just around the corner. Govern Pritzker’s first term in office was mostly dominated by something he could not see coming: the Covid-19 pandemic. But as he seeks another four years (years that we pray are not dominated by a global health crisis), it is worth taking a look at the big ideas he had to move the state forward. After all, the next four years may well be defined by our next governor’s ability to cast vision and lead us forward rather than his ability to react to circumstances.
Governor Pritzker prioritized three proposals at the beginning of his term: shifting the state from a flat to a variable tax rate, expanding abortion access, and legalizing pot. The “Fair Tax” Amendment failed at the ballot box as voters opted to reject the Pritzker-led ballot initiative. Abortion was expanded, making our state the abortion capitol of the Midwest (and there’s plenty of analysis and debate going on about that issue). But, just before Covid-19 took over the world, the governor had a huge legislative victory; he legalized recreational marijuana.
As a candidate for governor, Pritzker made marijuana legalization a key part of his pitch, touting his plan to bring the growing cannabis industry to the state as a way to “advance the causes of criminal justice reform, of consumer safety and job creation”.1 As governor, Pritzker wasted no time getting into conversations with the legislature and the army of pro-legalization lobbyists that descended upon the state to form up a proposal, and soon House Bill 1438 was making its way through the law-making process. On June 25th of 2019, the governor signed what he called, “the most equity-centric”2 law in the nation.
So, how is the state fairing two years into the policy? Let’s break it down.
Here’s the good.
One of the key benefits touted by legalization supporters was that the state was missing out on a large amount of tax revenue by keeping weed sales illegal and untaxed. And in a state like Illinois, desperate for revenue to help keep up with spending priorities, that seemed like a really good reason to support the proposal.
Well, the amount of tax revenue coming into state coffers has gone up and up since legal sales began in January of 2020 (weed was considered “essential” for Illinoians during Covid). In 2021, the state brought in $445 million in taxes from cannabis.3 While that number is near the bottom of the projected revenue from marijuana in 2021 (projections ranged between $440 million and $676 million4) and puts Illinois near the bottom of the rankings for revenue per capita among states that have legalized pot, revenue is revenue.
But, there’s plenty of bad.
Post marijuana legalization, Illinois saw a precipitous increase in motor vehicle accidents and deaths. From 2016 to 2019, traffic crashes in Illinois resulting in fatalities averaged approximately 1,000 per year. In 2019, there were 928 fatal crashes resulting in 1,009 deaths. In 2020, there were 1,050 fatal crashes resulting in 1,153 deaths, an increase of 13.14 percent of fatal crashes, and an increase of 14.3 percent for deaths resulting from those crashes. As of July 15, 2021, there have been 594 fatalities, an increase of 50 deaths compared to the same time in 2020.
Because Illinois doesn’t distinguish alcohol related DUIs from those related to cannabis and other drugs, it is hard to definitively link the legalization of marijuana with the increase in traffic deaths. Further complicating the problem is the fact Illinois law enforcement officers do not have a chemical test available to them in the field useful for determining impairment from marijuana.
But, there is a clear correlation between the legalization of recreational pot and the rise in vehicular crashes and deaths.
With the legalization of “adult use” marijuana the number of teenage users of the drug has gone up a little (from 6.7 percent to 7.4 percent). Marijuana use among adults has gone up even more (from 8.6 percent to 10.2 percent). Despite the creation of the Opioid Alternative Pilot Program, which allows access to medical marijuana for individuals who have or could receive a prescription for opioids, the number of opioid-related deaths among Illinois residents increased from 2,219 deaths in 2019 to 2,944 deaths in 2020.5 The majority of Chicago HIDTA Threat Assessment Survey respondents report that unlawful marijuana usage, demand, and availability have remained stable or increased since the passage of the Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act.6
In fact, the only number that seems to be going down is the number of people who perceive a risk of harm from using marijuana, which is down to less than 30 percent of the population.7 And that’s not great given that marijuana is becoming more dangerous in the age of legalization, not less. In the 1970s, the average smokable pot had a THC potency around 3 percent, today’s marijuana has potency of 23 percent. In 2017, the average potency in THC concentrates (oils, gummies, etc) was 55.7 percent. Today, many retailers promote and profit from products containing 95-99 percent THC potency.
And then, there’s the ugly.
Much of the data suggests that the impact of marijuana legalization in Illinois has not lived up to the promises made in the campaign to change the law. But, perhaps there were other promises made that actually did come to fruition…promises made behind closed doors…promises of a much more nefarius sort.
In July of 2019, Candice Gingrich was named Vice President and Head of Business Development for Revolution Florida, a sister company of Illinois-based Revolution Enterprises, a craft cannabis company. This would be of little note were Gingrich not the spouse of the legalization bill’s chief co-sponsor, State Representative Kelly Cassidy.8 Former State Senator Toi Hutchinson, who served as Senior Advisor to the governor’s office for cannabis and as a co-sponsor for the legalization bill in the State Senate left that body in 2019 to become the President and CEO of a Washington-based, pro-weed lobbying group called The Marijuana Policy Project.9 Governor J.B. Pritzker's cousin, Joby Pritzker, is an owner of PAX Labs which saw its business more than double in Illinois after recreational marijuana was legalized in our state.10
Of course, Gringrich, Cassidy, Hutchinson, and both Pritzkers have denied any conflicts of interest or collusion. But it bears mentioning that while the legalization of marijuana has not lived up to its hype, it did effectively improve the personal fortunes of many of its primary boosters in the legislative process and their families.
Illinois faces some tough challenges in the near future from our budget, to the education system, to public safety, to healthcare and household finances. In the next few years, we will likely have to face these challenges without the disruption of the Covid and without the support of emergency federal funds associated with the fight against the pandemic. We have to face these challenges on the strength of ideas and bold vision from our leaders. My prayer is that whoever spends the next four years in the governor’s chair will have more to offer than empty promises and ugly cronyism. I also pray that leaders – elected leaders, civic leaders, and especially faith leaders – will take a stand across Chicagoland and around the state of Illinois to push for public policy that will promote human flourishing and improve our quality of life.
(U//FOUO) Chicago HIDTA Threat Assessment Survey & Interviews, 2021. UNCLASSIFIED