Debate and polling reshape mayoral race
Ten takeaways from Thursday's debate and a deeper look at a poll released this weekend
Ten takeaways from Chicago’s first mayoral debate
On Thursday, the League of Women Voters and ABC News teamed up to bring the city of Big Shoulders our first televised mayoral debate of this election season. All nine candidates participated in the 90 minute discussion which touched on a wide range of topics including violence, policing, housing, transportation, immigration, and the opioid crisis. Here are 10 observations I made from the affair.
1. Lightfoot is in trouble
Probably the biggest takeaway from the night is that incumbent mayor, Lori Lightfoot, is facing a real uphill battle to win reelection. In her closing statement, the mayor summarized the argument that her campaign is making to the people of Chicago, “What we’ve seen is a better, safer, more equitable city.” That may be what the mayor sees, but can she convince a majority of voters that this is what they have experienced over the last four years. The mayor’s basic response to every question was, “We’re already handling that”. I am not sure that a campaign to convince Chicagoans that everything is great is going to be effective.
2. Chicago’s got talent
It was interesting, and perhaps refreshing, to see the level of political talent on display on the debate stage Thursday night. There was no candidate who was not able, in some way, to demonstrate why they belong on the stage and in the conversation. Not all of the candidates were the same (in fact, they were very different as we’ll discuss in a moment), but this was an engagement between a group of smart, capable individuals. Whoever wins the race, I hope that each one of these candidates will put their hand to plow and help dig Chicago out of some of the many holes the city is in. And the next mayor should make a point of engaging former opponents.
3. Chuy’s got to choose
Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia has had a slight edge in much of the polling leading up to this televised debate. But, in my opinion, the front-runner failed to claim a lane in the debate. There were candidates like Ja’Mal Green and Brandon Johnson crowding Chuy out of the “Progressive” spotlight. Alderman Sophia King and former schools CEO Paul Vallas were more credible as “the disciplined government reformer”. And Kam Buckner stole the role of the “long-time Chicagoan with personal passion for the city”. There are lots of things that Chuy can be in this race, but with so many gifted competitors, he has to choose and lean hard in some direction, and soon.
4. Watch Brandon Johnson
At this point in the mayoral election cycle of 2019, there was a little-known challenger polling around 6%, but raising a lot of money and campaigning to specific constituencies in the city. That challenger was none other than the sitting mayor of Chicago, Lori Lightfoot. Well, this time around there’s another challenger in a very similar position, Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Commissioner Johnson was probably the biggest winner Thursday night. He came across as competent, compassionate, and genuine. And while other lesser-known candidates accomplished something similar to Johnson, he is the only one with fundraising and infrastructure to follow-up his performance with advertising, digital outreach, and teams in the field. I’d say that he’s one to watch.
5. Money talks
You don’t have to examine individual candidate’s fundraising disclosures to know who has the money in the race. Now, my view is that anyone who characterized the debate as particularly contentious is either unfamiliar with Chicago politics or deliberately trying to sensationalize a respectful exchange of ideas facilitated by a team Chicago journalist. But to the extent that there were attacks, they were all shared among or at the top fundraisers so far, Lori Lightfoot, Chuy Garcia, Paul Vallas, and the top funded candidate…Chicago businessman and philanthropist, Willie Wilson.
6. Where’s Willie Wilson?
In many ways, Willie Wilson is a formidable candidate. He has more money than any person in the race (Wilson loaned most of that cash to his campaign from his personal wealth, but that has been no hindrance to other wealthy politicians in this state). Wilson won virtually every Black ward in Chicago in 2019 and has spent the last four years extending his reach into other ethnic communities in the city (he’s been endorsed by Polish community leaders and southwest side alderman Ray Lopez). But, a certain essence that marked Wilson’s 2019 candidacy was noticeably missing Thursday night…his joyfulness, his humor, and that common sense human touch. If Willie Wilson is going to win this race, it will not be on the strength of his policy prowess, but the strength of his powerful personality. That personality has to show up more on the campaign trail than it did in Thursday’s debate.
7. The race is not just about race
The easiest, and perhaps most historically rational, way to break down a Chicago mayoral election is along racial lines. But, you didn’t get the sense in this debate that this election is going to be just about racial coalitions. There was profound ideological diversity on display last night. The conversation didn’t feel like most of the candidates were playing to a racial “base”...especially since the vast majority of the candidates are Black. Chicago has a real opportunity to decide what kind of mayor we want, not just what color mayor we want. Vallas presented himself as an able manager, Johnson a progressive reformer, Green a movement maker, Wilson a businessman, King an expert on how the city works (socially and institutionally). It will be interesting to see how much these candidates lean into these clearly defined brands and try to build coalitions around them.
8. Somebody has to decide on violence
At several points throughout the evening, candidates seemed to argue that violence was on the rise in Chicago. But, Mayor Lightfoot pointed to data point after data point that showed violence coming down in Chicago. Candidate Ja’Mal Green accused the mayor of “cherry picking” the data she presented on the stage. An honest look at the numbers would probably agree with Lightfoot. The question is whether the decrease in violent crime is significant enough to be felt by everyday Chicagoans. Somebody has to decide whether crime is going to be discussed in terms of the numbers or in terms of the lived experience of Chicago residents. I guess the voters will make that call on February 28!
9. We still need to talk about the soul of the city
While there was a lot of conversation about important policy matters in what I thought was a well moderated debate, there are other issues…soul issues as I call them…that went undiscussed. Candidates talked about the opioid crisis, but we didn’t discuss social isolation and the loneliness crisis facing America and the city of Chicago. We talked about community violence, but not family dysfunction. There was an examination of the candidate's thoughts about finding and punishing criminals, but not about supporting and seeking healing for victims. We visited upon school performance, but not parental engagement. These issues sit under many of the ones that were discussed and need to be analyzed and debated.
10. The Church should have a conversation with the candidates
One constituency in Chicago that could a lead a conversation on the issues I point out in takeaway #9 is the church. That’s why the Chicago AND Campaign is teaming up with The Chicago Partnership to host a candidate forum on February 19th at Progressive Baptist Church. This won’t be a discussion about imposing Christian ideas on Chicago through the government. This conversation will focus on seeking the peace of the city into which we have been called. We want your church to be a partner in hosting the event (sign-up here to be hosting church). We also want your feedback as we shape the conversation which will be moderated Pastors Charlie Dates of Progressive Baptist Church and Salem Baptist Church and Pastor David Marrero of New Life Covenant Church (provide your input at this link).
The debate will air again on tonight (Sunday, January 22 at 4 p.m.)
New poll: Lightfoot drops to 4th, Vallas moves to 1st
The top-lines are horrible for the incumbent mayor, especially given that new polling from Matt Podgorski, of the political consulting firm M3 was conducted Jan. 15-17, prior to Thursday night’s mayoral debate where Lori Lightfoot struggled mightily. They mayor dropped to 4th place at with 9.8%. The top three: Paul Vallas (26%), Chuy Garcia (19%), and Brandon Johnson (12%). Fox News has the story on those top-line figures. Here are a few things to pay attention to from the limited crosstabs that were released:
1. The Mayor’s message isn’t landing
A full 85% of survey respondents said that they have heard or read something about Mayor Lightfoot recently (The mayor launched her first TV ads in November and spent more than $1.9 million on advertising in the final two months of the year, according to the state elections board filings). But, 65% of those voters say that what they heard made them less likely or much less likely to vote for her. 24% say that it “made no difference”.
2. Vallas is building a balanced coalition
The former schools chief is building the kind of coalition that can win a mayoral election. If they election were held today, the runoff would be between Congressman Jesus “Chuy’ Garcia and Paul Vallas. While Garcia’s is 2nd place overall, his support is more heavily weighted toward younger voters and Hispanic voters. Vallas’ support however is split evenly between men and women. He has respectable support among all age demographics and that support increases with older voters who are most likely to show up to the polls. Vallas is also getting support from several ethnic communities: 31% (White), 28% (Hispanic/Latino), 12% (Black)…note that there are 7 Black candidates in the race including the incumbent.
3. Johnson surging
You ordinarily would not write about a person who came in 4th place in a poll with less than 15% of the vote. But, if that candidate is a relative unknown who was at 3% at month ago, is coming off of a great debate performance, and has millions of dollars to spend on his election; then you call it a surge. I think that’s what we’re seeing with Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. He has the money and as we learned on Thursday, he has the talent. He certainly a candidate to watch over the next several weeks.